Monday, December 31, 2012
Monday, December 24, 2012
From The New York Times
When Prophecy Fails
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Back in the 1950s three social psychologists joined a cult that was
predicting the imminent end of the world. Their purpose was to observe
the cultists’ response when the world did not, in fact, end on schedule.
What they discovered, and described in their classic book, “When
Prophecy Fails,” is that the irrefutable failure of a prophecy does not
cause true believers — people who have committed themselves to a belief
both emotionally and by their life choices — to reconsider. On the
contrary, they become even more fervent, and proselytize even harder.
This insight seems highly relevant as 2012 draws to a close. After all, a
lot of people came to believe that we were on the brink of catastrophe —
and these views were given extraordinary reach by the mass media. As it
turned out, of course, the predicted catastrophe failed to materialize.
But we can be sure that the cultists won’t admit to having been wrong.
No, the people who told us that a fiscal crisis was imminent will just
keep at it, more convinced than ever.
Oh, wait a second — did you think I was talking about the Mayan calendar thing?
Seriously, at every stage of our ongoing economic crisis — and in
particular, every time anyone has suggested actually trying to do
something about mass unemployment — a chorus of voices has warned that
unless we bring down budget deficits now now now, financial markets will
turn on America, driving interest rates sky-high. And these prophecies
of doom have had a powerful effect on our economic discourse.
Thus, back in May 2009 the Wall Street Journal editorial page seized on
an uptick in long-term interest rates to declare that the “bond
vigilantes,” the “disciplinarians of U.S. policy makers,” had arrived,
and would push rates inexorably higher if big budget deficits continued.
As it happened, rates soon went back down. But that didn’t stop The
Journal’s news section from rolling out the same story the next time
rates rose: “Debt fears send rates up,” blared a headline in March 2010;
the debt continued to grow, but the rates went down again.
At this point the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is less than half
what it was when that 2009 editorial was published. But don’t expect any
rethinking on The Journal’s part.
Now, you could say that The Journal’s editors didn’t give a specific
date for the fiscal apocalypse, although I doubt that any of their
readers imagined that they were talking about an event at least three
years and seven months in the future.
In any case, some of the most prominent deficit scolds have indeed been
willing to talk about dates, or at least time horizons. In early 2011
Erskine Bowles confidently declared that we would face a fiscal crisis
within around two years unless something like the Bowles-Simpson deficit
plan was enacted, and Alan Simpson chimed in to say that it would be
less than two years. I guess he has about 10 weeks left. But again,
don’t expect either Mr. Simpson or Mr. Bowles to admit that there might
have been something fundamentally wrong with their analysis.
No, very few of the prophets of fiscal doom have acknowledged the
failure of their prophecies to come true so far. And those who have
admitted surprise seem more annoyed than chastened. For example, back in
2010 Alan Greenspan — who is, for some reason, still treated as an
authority figure — conceded that despite large budget deficits,
“inflation and long-term interest rates, the typical symptoms of fiscal
excess, have remained remarkably subdued.” But he went on to declare,
“This is regrettable, because it is fostering a sense of complacency.”
How dare reality not validate my fears!
Regular readers know that I and other economists argued from the
beginning that these dire warnings of fiscal catastrophe were all wrong,
that budget deficits won’t cause soaring interest rates as long as the
economy is depressed — and that the biggest risk to the economy is that
we might try to slash the deficit too soon. And surely that point of
view has been strongly validated by events.
The key thing we need to understand, however, is that the prophets of
fiscal disaster, no matter how respectable they may seem, are at this
point effectively members of a doomsday cult. They are emotionally and
professionally committed to the belief that fiscal crisis lurks just
around the corner, and they will hold to their belief no matter how many
corners we turn without encountering that crisis.
So we cannot and will not persuade these people to reconsider their
views in the light of the evidence. All we can do is stop paying
attention. It’s going to be difficult, because many members of the
deficit cult seem highly respectable. But they’ve been hugely, absurdly
wrong for years on end, and it’s time to stop taking them seriously.
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Friday, December 21, 2012
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Monday, November 26, 2012
From Tribe of Heart
Love Over Fear
A mini-documentary about the making of Peaceable Kingdom: The Journey Home
The NashVegans Meet Up Group is showing Peaceable Kingdom: The Journey Home
at the Green Hills Library on Saturday, December 1, 2012.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Thursday, November 8, 2012
April 2012: Ted Nugent at the National Rifle Association Convention
This past April, while speaking at a National Rifle Association convention, Ted Nugent said "If Barack Obama becomes the president in November, again, I will be either dead or in jail by this time next year."
Watch the following video and tell me if you are looking forward to April 2013 as much as I am?
Nugent is a Chickenhawk. He literally shit his pants to stay out of Vietnam.
Romney Concedes Florida
332 203
Examiner.com is reporting that when all is said and done President Obama is expected to receive 67,924,682 to 63,726,025 for former Governor Romney.
There should be about 133,724,450 total votes cast when the tallies from the smaller candidates are included. This will surpass the record setting total of 131,463,122 from 2008.
President Obama's final popular vote margin of victory over Romney is expected to be 3.14%.
Through extrapolation methods they are predicting that the President will obtain 50.79% of the popular vote to 47.65% for Romney.
Examiner.com is reporting that when all is said and done President Obama is expected to receive 67,924,682 to 63,726,025 for former Governor Romney.
There should be about 133,724,450 total votes cast when the tallies from the smaller candidates are included. This will surpass the record setting total of 131,463,122 from 2008.
President Obama's final popular vote margin of victory over Romney is expected to be 3.14%.
Through extrapolation methods they are predicting that the President will obtain 50.79% of the popular vote to 47.65% for Romney.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Here Are a Few Reasons Why Romney Lost
First and foremost he was running against President Obama and the President's grassroots supporters, including me.
The following additional reasons pale in comparison:
President Obama had Joe Biden, Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton.
Romney had Paul Ryan and George W. Bush's neocon strategists running his campaign while W was speaking at an investment conference in the Cayman Islands.
A majority of the electorate saw Romney as a "vulture capitalist," as someone who used other people's money to buy and sell other people's businesses – not a job creator.
Women favored Obama by 55 percent and unmarried women preferred him by 68 percent.
70 percent of Hispanics and Asian Americans voted for Obama.
Romney told one too many obvious lies.
And, last but not least, as fundamentalist Christians would say, "God intervened."
Now What?
I'm not a cynical man. I'm a realist. Despite the President's victory and a number of remarkable wins by progressives in both the House and the Senate, despite the President's willingness to work with his adversaries congressional cooperation with the President will remain as it has been – recalcitrant, perverse, inflexible and uncompromising. The obstructionism will persist.
Nude Portrait of Sienna Miller
The nude portrait of Sienna Miller is currently on display at Circleculture Gallery in Berlin, Germany. Though she gave birth to her daughter back in July her pregnancy was captured on canvas by artist Jonathan Yeo.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
I Told You So!
It seems once all the votes are counted the President will win an electoral landslide, well over 300 electoral votes. I predicted he would win every swing state except North Carolina with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206. I still believe he will.
He also will win the popular vote.
He also will win the popular vote.
The Difference Between Embellishing the Truth and Lying
by Dee Newman
Dissembling attack ads have always been apart of political campaigns. All political candidates are guilty of distorting their opponent’s record.
Political attacks ads, some of which have been malicious and slanderous, including accusations of pimping, adultery, miscegenation and bestiality, inform our nation’s history. More often than not, their use has provoked vicious counter attacks – some even violent. In 1804 Aaron Burr was the sitting vice president of the United States when he shot and killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel.
I cannot deny that the Obama campaign has engaged in its own share of dissembling. It has. But their efforts to exploit Romney’s flip-flopping and his positions on taxes (including his own), abortion and foreign affairs do not come close to Romney’s lies and his campaign’s fundamental contempt for the truth.
Mr. Romney’s outlandish fabrications and accusations have been qualitatively far worse than President Obama embellishments: from his nefarious charge that the President participated in a Middle East “apology tour” to his fraudulent claim that Obamacare is a “government takeover of healthcare,” from his false allegation that the President gutted welfare-to-work rules to his baseless assertion that Obama’s auto bailout is responsible for Chrysler shipping jobs from Ohio to China.
It is clear that the Romney campaign believes that facts can be ignored with impunity. As Romney’s pollsters Neil Newhouse said, “We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.”
Unfortunately, our press has for sometime chosen to be merely stenographers not journalists, reporting all accusations and assertions as equally valid. Nevertheless, I believe that the majority of voters (though slim) will rebuff Romney’s lies and his contemptuous manipulations.
It is though beyond my comprehension that today as I write this nearly half of the electorate will vote against their own interests for yet another lying Republican plutocrat who made hundreds of millions of dollars by using other people’s money to buy and sell other peoples businesses, and who (along with his rich plutocrat buddies) helped wrecked the nation’s economy and send us to the brink of another Great Depression.
There are only six excuses for not voting today.
1) You've already voted
2) You are not registered to vote
3) You are not a citizen of the United States
4) You are a convicted felon in Florida, Iowa, Kentucky or Virginia
5) You are less than 18 years old
6) You're dying or you're dead
All other excuses are unexceptable!
Monday, November 5, 2012
An Electoral Landslide is Imminent (But, for Who?)
The narrative coming out the Romney camp is that an electoral landslide is imminent for their candidate. Independent voters are all surging toward Romney. Swing state after swing state is lining up for Mitt.
Damn the polls! They are all bias towards the President.
In a little more than 30 hours from now reality will slap them in face. But, the question remains: Will their delusional thinking persist?
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Here's My Prediction of the 2012 Presidential Race
The President will win with more than 300 electoral votes. He only needs 270.
Friday, November 2, 2012
From Truthout
What Does Romney's Campaign of Lies Say About Our Country?
Wednesday, 31 October 2012 11:33 By Dave Johnson, Campaign for America's Future | News Analysis
Republican
presidential candidate Mitt Romney during a campaign event in Avon,
Ohio, October 29, 2012. (Photo: Stephen Crowley / The New York Times) Last week Mitt Romney delivered possibly the most dishonest presidential campaign speech
in American history. It contains lie after lie, distortion after
distortion, and trick after trick. The fact that a person capable of
giving such a speech has reached this level suggests that it may be too
late to salvage the country. Our institutions may be corrupted beyond
repair.
To read the entire article click here.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
From Food MythBusters
From The HuffingtonPost
Seven Things to Tell Your Friends About GMOs
1. GMOs have never undergone standard testing or regulation for human safety. And now that they're in 70 percent of processed foods, it's extremely difficult for scientists to isolate their health risks.
2. But we know that GMOs have proven harmful in animal studies. A 2009 review of 19 studies found mammals fed GM corn or soy developed "liver and kidney problems" that could mark the "onset of chronic diseases." Most were 90-day studies. In a new two-year study, rats fed GM corn developed two to three times more tumors -- some bigger than a quarter of their total body weight -- and these tumors appeared much earlier than in rats fed non-GM corn. Among scientists, the study has its defenders and critics, but even the critics underscore that we need more long-term studies.
3. And the most widely used GMOs are paired with an herbicide linked to serious health risks. GM crops -- Roundup Ready soy and corn -- are treated with the herbicide glyphosate, which in exposed humans has been associated with DNA damage. In the lab, it's proven toxic to human liver cells.
4. The consequences of GMO technology are inherently unpredictable. Inserting a single gene can result in multiple, unintended DNA changes and mutations. "Unintended effects are common in all cases where GE [genetic engineering] techniques are used," warn scientists. One such environmental consequence -- genetic contamination of other plants -- is already documented. Note that unlike food, once released into the environment, seeds can't be "recalled"!
5. GMO makers intimidate and silence farmers and scientists. GMO corporations use patents and intellectual property rights to sue farmers, block research, and threaten investigators. "For a decade," protested Scientific American editors in 2009, GMO companies "have explicitly forbidden the use of the seeds for any independent research," so "it is impossible to verify that genetically modified crops perform as advertised."
6. GMOs undermine our food security. Within the biotechnology market, Monsanto alone controls 90 percent of GE crops worldwide. And Monsanto is one of three GMO companies including DuPont and Syngenta that control 70 percent of the global seed market, reinforcing monopoly power over our food. GMO seeds are costly and must be purchased every year, so they worsen farmers' indebtedness, dependency, and vulnerability to hunger.
7. GMOs aren't needed in the first place, so why would we take on these risks and harms? Studies show that safe, sustainable farming practices applied worldwide could increase our food supply as much as 50 percent. And keep in mind that the world's already producing 2,800 calories for every person on earth every day -- more than enough. And that's just with what's left over after using half the world's grain for feed, fuel and other purposes, and wasting one-third of all food. So the urgent question isn't about "more" anyway. It is, How can all of the world's people gain the power to secure healthy food? And a good start is knowing what's in our food.
For a cool, just-released animated video devouring the myth that we need industrial ag, see foodmyths.org.
From The Rachel Maddow Blog
A tale of two former presidents
-
Thu Nov 1, 2012 10:12 AM EDT
Associated Press
Just this week, former President Bill Clinton has campaigned for President Obama in Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado, and Iowa. Today, Clinton will hit the stump for Obama in Wisconsin and again in Ohio. By most measures, the former president has become Obama's most popular and most effective surrogate.
And then there's Clinton's successor.
[George W. Bush] will spend Thursday in the Cayman Islands, delivering the keynote address at the Cayman Alternative Investment Summit. As Romney struggles to convince voters that he understands their economic struggles, having the previous Republican president reminding them of the questions surrounding Romney's financial dealings in the Caymans is beyond unhelpful.Yes, as we first discussed in September, George W. Bush, with just five days remaining before Election Day, is headed to one of the most politically inconvenient locations possible for Mitt Romney: the Republican will deliver the keynote address this evening at the Cayman Alternative Investment Summit.
In case anyone's forgotten, Romney ran into a little trouble over the summer when we learned he has stashed cash in the Cayman Islands, and played fast and loose with the facts, hoping the public won't realize that Romney is using the Caymans as an apparent tax-avoidance scheme.
Which reminds me -- has anyone asked Romney about his secret tax returns lately?
As for the former presidents, the public roles of both couldn't be more striking. Clinton is one of the nation's most popular figures, and Bush is hiding because Republicans don't want voters to be reminded of the similarities between his and Romney's agendas.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Sandy: New York Power Station Explosion
A Con Edison power station at 14th Street and FDR Drive in Manhattan explodes after Sandy pounded the city. No one was injured in the explosion. ConEd did not know whether the explosion was caused by flooding or by flying debris. Almost 2 million New Yorkers are now without power.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Vote for Martin Pleasant for the U.S. Senate
Martin Pleasant is a 43-year-old environmental engineer from Knox County and the Tennessee Green Party's candidate for U.S. Senate. He lives in South Knoxville and works with the Knox County Engineering & Public Works department, where he works to solves drainage problems and restores unhealthy creeks. His service includes crafting new ordinances that promote ecological practices in community development.
He is a devoted husband and father and an active member of his community. Along with his wife Virginia and their children, he operates a small organic farm and community garden space near Vestal, Tennessee. Martin has also devoted himself to the welfare of Tennessee and its citizens by doing volunteer work with Americorps, Community Creek Clean-ups, River Rescue, coaching youth sports, and serving as President of Vine Middle School Parent Teacher Student Organization (PTSO).
Martin holds two degrees from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville – Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering and Master of Science in Environmental Engineering. Martin’s education and experience have given him the ability to work with a diverse group of people to solve problems. He feels that this is a valuable skill to bring to public service in the U.S. Senate.
Mr. Pleasant has stated that "Climate change is for real" and that he will work diligently to make sure environmental regulations address climate change.
He has said that he "wants to establish a new regulatory banking act, develop a comprehensive set of incentives for businesses and homeowners to incorporate energy efficiency, and overhaul our energy system through a New Green Deal."
He certainly speaks more knowledgeably about climate change than the incumbent, Senator Bob Corker.
The so-called Democrat in the race, Mark Clayton, is associated with a known conservative hate group in Washington, D.C.. The Tennessee Democratic Party in a statement shortly after the primary said that the only time the insurance agent had voted in a Democratic primary "was when he was voting for himself," declaring that Clayton won only because he was listed first on the ballot. The Tennessee Democratic Party has disavowed Clayton's candidacy and has urged Democrats to write-in a candidate of their choice in November.
From The Chattanooga Times Free Press
published Sunday, October 28th, 2012
2nd Scott DesJarlais girlfriend talks
On the heels of a sex scandal involving a female patient, another woman has acknowledged having a sexual relationship with physician and U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais while she was under his medical care.
The second woman described DesJarlais as "the nicest guy" and said he cooked dinner for her at their first get-together in 2000.
But she also said they smoked marijuana during their relationship and remembered DesJarlais prescribing her pain medication on dates at his home.
"His biggest thing that's completely unethical is him just picking up women while he's a doctor," the woman said in an interview last week. "I mean, seriously, that's his big no-no. ... He's just a hound."
The woman said the affair lasted six months and included mutual illicit drug use.
"Scott was just a regular guy," she said. "He smoked. I mean, he smoked pot. He [did] all that stuff."
The woman's remarks about marijuana use could not be independently verified.
DesJarlais is a Republican seeking re-election in the 4th District. In a prepared statement Saturday, his campaign did not dispute any specific allegations by the woman, instead condemning "personal smear campaigns that hurt families" and "have no place in politics."
To read the entire article click here.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Eastwood Was Wrong in More Ways than One
by Dee Newman
Do you remember what Clint Eastwood said about President Obama (a trained Harvard lawyer, constitutional law scholar and former law professor) during his faltering and stammering monologue at the Republican National Convention? Here's a reminder:
“See, I never thought it was a good idea for attorneys to be the president, anyway. . . [interrupted by applause from convention delegates] . . . I think attorneys are so busy – you know they’re always taught to argue everything, and always weigh everything, weigh both sides. They are always devil’s advocating this and bifurcating this and bifurcating that, you know, all that stuff.”Well, as we know, Mr. Eastwood was wrong about inferring that Mr. Romney is not a trained Harvard lawyer, he is. But, he was correct in his essential point – that Mr. Romney unlike President Obama thinks more like a businessman than a lawyer.
A good lawyer like our President is able to analyze, organize and present coherent, persuasive and reasoned positions; they are able to think independently and critically, analyzing the utility and effectiveness of an argument; and they are able to choose and devise strategies for setting goals that can be accomplished.
Mr. Eastwood was also wrong about lawyers not making good Presidents. More than half of our presidents have been lawyers, including some of our nation’s best: Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt just to name three.
You would think, given recent history of those presidents who were former GOP businessmen (comprising the likes of Harding, Hoover and George W. Bush) that a man of Eastwood’s intellect would know that having another Republican businessman in the Oval Office might prove disastrous.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
The Etch-a-Sketch-Man
by Dee Newman
There’s not a damn thing that he professed to believe a decade ago (Hell! even a month ago) that he now considers politically acceptable, including his most signature accomplishments – Romney Care.
Is he Mitt-the-moderate, or Mitt-the-severe-conservative?
He spent month after month campaigning that he would initiate an additional twenty percent tax cut over and above the Bush tax cuts, only to discard them as soon as the debates began, claiming his tax cuts would not actually be tax cuts, merely a tax reform plan that would have no tangible tax impact (both deficit and burden neutral) – which of course begs the question: why push for tax cuts that in the end do nothing, much less promote them as your signature campaign theme?
Romney has surrounded himself with old Bush administration neoconservative foreign policy veterans, many of them known for their role in initiating the war in Iraq. With their advice he has (up until the debates) been highly critical of the President’s foreign policy. And then, suddenly an abrupt turn around.
During the last debate, Mr. Romney not only agreed with President Obama's foreign policy decisions, he did so, with the same intensity with which he had previously and passionately derided the President's policies. In fact, the only discernable difference between the two was Romney’s inexplicable desire to spend more money on boats.
Yes, what we’ve seen in the last month is the Etch-a-Sketch-man in full operating mode, shaking off all his old extreme positions for some new more politically viable ones, trying not to alienate his base while courting moderate independent voters.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
An Open Letter to Ann Coulter
From specialolympicsblog.wordpress.com
by John Franklin Stephens
Dear Ann Coulter,Come on Ms. Coulter, you aren’t dumb and you aren’t shallow. So why are you continually using a word like the R-word as an insult?
I’m a 30 year old man with Down syndrome who has struggled with the public’s perception that an intellectual disability means that I am dumb and shallow. I am not either of those things, but I do process information more slowly than the rest of you. In fact it has taken me all day to figure out how to respond to your use of the R-word last night.
I thought first of asking whether you meant to describe the President as someone who was bullied as a child by people like you, but rose above it to find a way to succeed in life as many of my fellow Special Olympians have.
Then I wondered if you meant to describe him as someone who has to struggle to be thoughtful about everything he says, as everyone else races from one snarkey sound bite to the next.
Finally, I wondered if you meant to degrade him as someone who is likely to receive bad health care, live in low grade housing with very little income and still manages to see life as a wonderful gift.
Because, Ms. Coulter, that is who we are – and much, much more.
After I saw your tweet, I realized you just wanted to belittle the President by linking him to people like me. You assumed that people would understand and accept that being linked to someone like me is an insult and you assumed you could get away with it and still appear on TV.
I have to wonder if you considered other hateful words but recoiled from the backlash.
Well, Ms. Coulter, you, and society, need to learn that being compared to people like me should be considered a badge of honor.
No one overcomes more than we do and still loves life so much.
Come join us someday at Special Olympics. See if you can walk away with your heart unchanged.
A friend you haven’t made yet,
John Franklin Stephens
Global Messenger
Special Olympics Virginia
From The Rachel Maddow Show
Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Greg Palast: "Mitt Romney's Bailout Bonanza: How He Made Millions From The Rescue of Detroit"
Published on Oct 18, 2012 by democracynow
DemocracyNow.org: We turn now to a major new exposé on the cover of The Nation magazine called, "Mitt Romney's Bailout Bonanza: How He Made Millions From The Rescue of Detroit." Investigative reporter Greg Palast reveals how Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney made some $15 million on the auto bailout and that three of Romney's top donors made more than $4 billion for their hedge funds from the bailout. Palast's report is part of a film-in-progress called, "Romney's Bailout Bonanza." Palast is the author of several books, including recently released New York Times best seller, "Billionaires & Ballot Bandits: How to Steal An Election in 9 Easy Steps."
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Identity Theft
by Dee Newman
Pandering to moderate independent voters, Mr. Romney not only agreed with President Obama's foreign policy decisions (from the ouster of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt to the killing of Osama bin Laden, from the the President's sanctions on Iran to his decision to liberate Libya, from the Presidents withdrawal timetable in Afghanistan to his reluctance to put boots on the ground in Syria, from drone strikes to the use of military force, even the President's bail out of Detroit), he did so, with the same intensity with which he had previously and passionately derided the President's policies.
Hell, at one point in the debate I thought Romney was actually going to endorse the President.
What a flip-flop! Romney proved once again that he could lie with a straight face, that he has no integrity and that he is willing to say or do anything to get elected, even to impersonate his opponent.
Apparently, his handlers thought that their strategy to assume the identity of the President in order to commit fraud was successful. But, why would anyone vote for an impostor when they already have the real thing?
In the end, the Republican spin-machine was only left with – the Governor passed the "commander-in-chief test," he looked "presidential."
If the "far right" continues to back Romney after last night's impersonation of the President, then they have no integrity as well.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Monday, October 15, 2012
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